PNAS:戒烟的大规模效果

发布者：EurekAlert! 发布时间：2009-1-8

与吸烟有关的死亡率的下降速度可能比美国社会保障局此前估计的更快，后者的模型没有考虑到吸烟者戒掉烟瘾的因素。Haidong Wang 和Samuel Preston建立了一个新的统计模型，它根据人的吸烟习惯预测了全国范围的平均预期寿命的增加。
此前美国社会保障局使用的Lee-Carter模型只衡量一个人在他/她的一生中是否曾经吸过香烟。Wong和Preston修改了这个模型，考虑了一个人到40岁的时候的总吸烟年数的因素。这组作者指出，这种方法比每天吸烟包数能更准确地预测肺癌的死亡率。他们报告说男性死亡率将很可能比女性死亡率下降得更快，因为男性吸烟率的下降速度比女性吸烟率的下降速度更快。Wong和Preston把他们的模型预计的死亡率下降的大部分归结于戒烟率的增加。
PNAS January 5, 2009, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0811809106
Forecasting United States mortality using cohort smoking histories
Haidong Wanga and Samuel H. Prestonb,1
aInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, 2301 5th Avenue, Seattle, WA 98121; and
bPopulation Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6298
Abstract
In this paper, we introduce a recently established relationship between cohort smoking patterns and adult mortality into mortality projections for the United States. In particular, we incorporate a variable representing the intensity of smoking within a cohort into the original Lee–Carter projection model. The introduction of this variable accounts for important anomalies in the recent age/sex pattern of mortality change and enables the use of a common temporal trend of mortality change for the 2 sexes. We project age-specific mortality rates for men and women at ages 50–84 between 2004 and 2034 in the United States. Because of reductions in smoking that have already occurred or can be reliably projected, mortality is projected to decline much faster when smoking is introduced into the model.